{"id":623,"date":"2025-11-21T19:17:05","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T16:17:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/icospeaks.com\/ico-news\/bitcoin-price-risks-even-larger-pullback-in-quarter-4-after-shrill-refusals\/"},"modified":"2026-02-04T11:54:02","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T07:54:02","slug":"bitcoin-price-risks-even-larger-pullback-in-quarter-4-after-shrill-refusals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/icospeaks.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-risks-even-larger-pullback-in-quarter-4-after-shrill-refusals\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin price risks even larger pullback"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"views\">\n<div class=\"Post_dates\">\n<div>\n<h2><strong>BTC is trading around US $85,106 (as of the most recent update) in the USD market.<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"167\" data-end=\"195\"><\/h3>\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto [content-visibility:auto] supports-[content-visibility:auto]:[contain-intrinsic-size:auto_100lvh] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-WEB:a1ce7d42-c0e0-4745-a562-158a70660424-65\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-6\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] thread-sm:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] thread-lg:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-lg:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"cdbb2e36-c720-4b91-8e1c-0da00093095c\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-1\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words light markdown-new-styling\">\n<ul data-start=\"1249\" data-end=\"1649\">\n<li data-start=\"331\" data-end=\"470\">\n<p data-start=\"333\" data-end=\"470\">Other data sources show prices between <strong data-start=\"372\" data-end=\"401\">~US $83,000 to US $86,000<\/strong> for today, 21 November 2025. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between absolute\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Reuters<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+3<\/span><\/span><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">coindesk.com<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+3<\/span><\/span><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between absolute\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Twelve Data<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"471\" data-end=\"579\">\n<p data-start=\"473\" data-end=\"579\">It is significantly down from the October highs above US $120,000. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Business Insider<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1249\" data-end=\"1374\">\n<p data-start=\"1251\" data-end=\"1374\">\u201cAs of 21 November 2025, Bitcoin is trading around US $83K-US $86K, having dropped from its recent highs above US $120K.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1375\" data-end=\"1530\">\n<p data-start=\"1377\" data-end=\"1530\">\u201cAnalysts now identify key price zones in the <strong data-start=\"1423\" data-end=\"1442\">US $75K-US $90K<\/strong> range as critical \u2014 any break below the lower bound could trigger a sharp pull-back.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1531\" data-end=\"1649\">\n<p data-start=\"1533\" data-end=\"1649\">\u201cGiven the current elevated price level and heavy prior run-up, the risk of a larger correction in Q4 is amplified.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"z-0 flex min-h-[46px] justify-start\">\n<h3 data-start=\"171\" data-end=\"270\">Bitcoin Risks a Major Pullback in Q4 as Bearish Technical Patterns &amp; Macro Uncertainty Converge<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"272\" data-end=\"583\">As of 21 November 2025, the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around <strong data-start=\"356\" data-end=\"380\">US $83,000 \u2013 $85,000<\/strong>. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Investopedia<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> After peaking above US $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has lost roughly one-third of its value in a little over six weeks. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Investopedia<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"585\" data-end=\"751\">Given this backdrop, Bitcoin appears vulnerable to a sizeable pullback in the fourth quarter, driven by structural chart weakness and growing macroeconomic headwinds.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"753\" data-end=\"756\" \/>\n<h4 data-start=\"758\" data-end=\"788\">Technical Vulnerabilities<\/h4>\n<ol data-start=\"790\" data-end=\"2163\">\n<li data-start=\"790\" data-end=\"1166\">\n<p data-start=\"793\" data-end=\"1166\"><strong data-start=\"793\" data-end=\"827\">Large gap in derivative market<\/strong><br data-start=\"827\" data-end=\"830\" \/>Market participants continue to monitor a gap left in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market \u2014 a gap at a prior level (historically around US $90K-US $95K) remains unfilled. Historically, CME-futures gaps tend to get closed, and the presence of this open gap suggests an important magnet level for price action.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1168\" data-end=\"1826\">\n<p data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1652\"><strong data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1204\">Bearish time-frame structures<\/strong><br data-start=\"1204\" data-end=\"1207\" \/>On the monthly chart, Bitcoin now trades well below its recent highs, and the risk of a sustained red monthly candle is heightened \u2014 a signal of bearish momentum. Simultaneously, on the daily chart, Bitcoin has registered multiple lower highs since the October peak (for example, successive highs falling from ~$126K \u2192 ~$120K \u2192 ~$110K \u2192 ~$100K+), creating a classic \u201clower high\u201d pattern. This reinforces the risk of a near-term downward bias.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1657\" data-end=\"1826\">These combined multi-time-frame patterns (monthly + daily) are significant, since they often mark shifts in broader market phase rather than just short-term corrections.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1828\" data-end=\"2163\">\n<p data-start=\"1831\" data-end=\"2163\"><strong data-start=\"1831\" data-end=\"1874\">Failed breakout and potential bull trap<\/strong><br data-start=\"1874\" data-end=\"1877\" \/>Bitcoin made a sharp attempt to clear resistance in October, but the failure to hold above ~US $120,000 and subsequent sharp drop suggests the breakout may have been a \u201cbull trap.\u201d When a key resistance is breached but then rejected, the probability of a deeper correction increases.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr data-start=\"2165\" data-end=\"2168\" \/>\n<h4 data-start=\"2170\" data-end=\"2213\">Q4 Historical Performance &amp; Cycle Risk<\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"2215\" data-end=\"2501\">Bitcoin\u2019s historical performance in the fourth quarter has been mixed\u2014and in recent years leaning negative. For instance, over the past two cycles Bitcoin suffered drops of ~42% and ~13% in Q4. Given this precedent, the probability of a slower, risk-off fourth quarter remains elevated.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"3010\">That said, long-term cycle analysis shows that Bitcoin\u2019s post-halving behavior can diverge from shorter-term seasonal patterns. For example, following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin\u2019s Q4 produced a meaningful rise (from ~US $614 to ~US $998), and the cumulative bull-run lasted ~15 months to the $20K peak. While we are in a post-halving regime (the latest halving occurred in April 2024), the current environment differs markedly\u2014among other things due to heavier macro headwinds and higher starting valuations.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3012\" data-end=\"3015\" \/>\n<h4 data-start=\"3017\" data-end=\"3059\">Heightened Macro &amp; Market Uncertainty<\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"3061\" data-end=\"3136\">Macro risk has mounted significantly heading into the final months of 2025:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3138\" data-end=\"3848\">\n<li data-start=\"3138\" data-end=\"3309\">\n<p data-start=\"3140\" data-end=\"3309\">The rapid appetite for risk assets (including Bitcoin) between March and August 2025 was supported by abundant liquidity, low interest rates and large fiscal stimulus.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3310\" data-end=\"3573\">\n<p data-start=\"3312\" data-end=\"3573\">Now, the landscape has shifted: inflation remains sticky in the US, rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve have been scaled back, and fiscal stimulus is limited. These dynamics are weighing on risk-assets broadly. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">marketwatch.com<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3574\" data-end=\"3848\">\n<p data-start=\"3576\" data-end=\"3848\">Notably, crypto-markets are increasingly correlated with speculative tech equities and the wider \u201crisk-on\u201d universe. The recent crypto drop has been partly driven by deleveraging, margin-calls and a rotation out of high-beta assets. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Reuters<\/span><span class=\"-me-1 flex h-full items-center rounded-full px-1 text-[#8F8F8F]\">+1<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3850\" data-end=\"3986\">As crypto risk sentiment softens, Bitcoin remains exposed to headwinds\u2014particularly if broader financial markets enter a risk-off phase.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3988\" data-end=\"3991\" \/>\n<h4 data-start=\"3993\" data-end=\"4018\">Outlook &amp; Key Levels<\/h4>\n<ul data-start=\"4020\" data-end=\"4539\">\n<li data-start=\"4020\" data-end=\"4064\">\n<p data-start=\"4022\" data-end=\"4064\">Current trading range: ~US $83K-US $85K.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4065\" data-end=\"4240\">\n<p data-start=\"4067\" data-end=\"4240\">Critical near-term support zones: ~US $75K-US $80K (if pressure continues) and ~US $60K-US $70K in a more severe correction scenario. <span class=\"\" data-state=\"closed\"><span class=\"ms-1 inline-flex max-w-full items-center relative top-[-0.094rem] animate-[show_150ms_ease-in]\" data-testid=\"webpage-citation-pill\"><span class=\"relative start-0 bottom-0 flex h-full w-full items-center\"><span class=\"flex h-4 w-full items-center justify-between overflow-hidden\"><span class=\"max-w-[15ch] grow truncate overflow-hidden text-center\">Business Insider<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4241\" data-end=\"4381\">\n<p data-start=\"4243\" data-end=\"4381\">Significant resistance: ~US $100K-US $120K region. A failure to reclaim and hold above this zone underpins the risk of further downside.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4382\" data-end=\"4539\">\n<p data-start=\"4384\" data-end=\"4539\">Recommended stance: Short-term cautious to bearish; medium to long-term still constructive (i.e., accumulation possible), but near-term risks are elevated.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"4541\" data-end=\"4544\" \/>\n<h4 data-start=\"4546\" data-end=\"4558\">Summary<\/h4>\n<p data-start=\"4560\" data-end=\"4996\">In summary: Bitcoin is trading well off its October highs and faces multiple technical and macro flags that suggest the fourth quarter could be tough. While a drastic crash isn\u2019t guaranteed, the probability of a meaningful correction is higher than in calmer conditions. Traders and investors may want to adopt a more cautious posture in the near term, while long-term holders may view current weakness as a potential accumulation zone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mt-3 w-full empty:hidden\">\n<div class=\"text-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/icospeaks.com\/news\/\">Stay subscribed to our news.<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BTC is trading around US $85,106 (as of the most recent update) in the USD market. Other data sources show prices between ~US $83,000 to US $86,000 for today, 21 November 2025. Reuters+3coindesk.com+3Twelve Data+3 It is significantly down from the October highs above US $120,000. Business Insider+1 \u201cAs of 21 November 2025, Bitcoin is trading [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[211],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.7.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Price Risks: Larger Q4 Pullback After Market Refusals<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin faces heightened risk of a deeper pullback in Q4 as bearish technical patterns align with growing macroeconomic uncertainty.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/icospeaks.com\/news\/bitcoin-price-risks-even-larger-pullback-in-quarter-4-after-shrill-refusals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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